政府补贴对企业就业波动的影响研究

The Impact of Government Subsidies on Firm-level Employment Volatility

企业就业波动反映企业就业增长的稳定性。面对外部冲击如何"减震"保障就业稳定成为政府就业工作的重点,而政府补贴能否促进企业就业规模的稳定增长仍然有待深入探究。文章利用工业企业数据实证分析了政府补贴对企业就业波动的影响以及其作用机制。研究发现:政府补贴对企业就业波动存在显著负向作用,政府补贴强度增加有利于降低企业就业波动。政府补贴强度与企业就业波动之间存在"U"形的非线性关系,面板门槛模型回归结果表明,当政府补贴强度低于门槛值0.0368时,具有抑制波动作用;而高于门槛值0.0368时,具有增加波动的作用。进一步分析表明,其抑制波动的作用渠道是通过缓解短期的资金压力和强化企业储备员工的能力以应对冲击,但技术进步和技术种类多样化的作用渠道效果不太明显。增大波动的作用渠道是因为新产品创新带来产品业务线和就业岗位调整导致了企业就业波动更大。

The employment volatility of enterprises reflects the stability of enterprise employment growth.How to maintain employment stability in the face of external shocks has become the priority tasks of government policymakers,and whether government subsidies can promote the stable growth of enterprise employment remains to be further explored.This paper empirically analyzes the impact of government subsidies on employment volatility and their mechanism of action using Chinese industrial enterprise data.It is found that there is a significant negative effect of government subsidies on employment volatility,and an increase in the intensity of government subsidies is conducive to reducing the employment volatility of enterprises.The results of the threshold regression model indicate that government subsidies have a significant single threshold effect on employment volatility,and the threshold value of subsidy intensity is 0.0368.Therefore,it is demonstrated that nonlinear relationship exists between them.Its role channel of suppressing volatility is through alleviating short-term financial pressure and strengthening the ability of enterprises to reserve employees to cope with shocks,and the role channel of technological progress and diversification of technological types is less effective;its role channel of increasing volatility is due to new product innovations that bring product business lines and job adjustments leading to greater volatility in enterprise employment.The possible marginal contributions of this paper are that:Firstly,previous studies on the impact of government subsidies on enterprise employment focus more on the effect of its employment scale promotion.This paper analyzes the impact of government subsidies on employment volatility from the perspective of the stability of enterprise net employment growth,and pays attention to the effect that government subsidies not only promote employment,but also promote stable employment growth.Secondly,this paper reveals the mechanism of government subsidies affecting employment volatility,which is analyzed from the perspectives of alleviating short-term capital pressure and promoting R&D and innovation activities.The former can resist the disturbance of external shocks on production and employment by improving the internal profit situation and strengthening the ability to employ reserve employees;the latter exerts an impact on employment volatility by providing new technology through technological progress,diversified technology combination or new product innovation.In addition,this paper empirically tests the impact of the two channel mechanisms.