“一带一路”沿线自由贸易协定深度提升是否促进了区域价值链合作?

Does the Deepening of Free Trade Agreements among the Belt and Road Countries Promote Regional Value Chain Cooperation?

"一带一路"国家间的价值链合作是沿线国家化解逆全球化危机、摆脱价值链低端锁定的有效途径,而建立高标准的自由贸易协定可以为沿线的价值链合作提供重要支撑。文章采用2000-2015年64个"一带一路"沿线国家间的数据,实证检验"一带一路"沿线贸易协定深度的提升对区域价值链合作的影响。结果表明:(1)"一带一路"沿线自由贸易协定深度的提升显著地促进了各国在区域内的价值链合作,从多个角度进行稳健性检验后结论依然成立。(2)自由贸易协定深度的提升可以通过降低贸易成本和促进直接投资推动区域价值链合作,其中降低贸易成本是更重要的传导渠道。(3)自由贸易协定中非关税议题和"WTO-X"议题深度的提升对"一带一路"沿线区域价值链合作的促进作用更强;自由贸易协定深度的提升对区域价值链合作的促进效应在初始区域价值链合作程度高、地理和文化差异小的沿线国家之间更强。(4)自由贸易协定深度的提升在推动缔约国的增加值向区域外流动的同时,不会抑制缔约国一方同非缔约国在区域内的价值链合作。因此,中国应与"一带一路"沿线国家一道建立更高标准的FTAs,利用FTAs深度提升对价值链合作的促进作用和包容性,实现中国与沿线国家间的互利共赢。

Strengthening the value chain cooperation among developing countries becomes an effective way for developing countries to resolve the crisis of anti-globalization and get rid of the lock at the lower end of the value chain.The Belt and Road initiative provides a new direction for developing countries to promote the value chain cooperation among them.However,as an open cooperation platform,the Belt and Road initiative does not provide a menu-style solution.We think that the establishment of a deeply integrated free trade agreement(FTA)network among the Belt and Road countries is one path to strengthen value chain cooperation under the framework of this initiative.So,does the available empirical datum support this idea?The answer to this question can provide policy reference for China and the Belt and Road countries to construct highstandard FTAs as a starting point to carry out value chain cooperation effectively.This paper firstly illustrates the influence mechanism of FTA depth in promoting regional value chain cooperation.With the data of 64 Belt and Road countries from 2000 to 2015,this paper then empirically identifies the actual influence,mechanism and differentiation characteristics of FTA depth on regional value chain cooperation.It further examines whether the depth of FTAs affects the value chain cooperation between state parties and other countries.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly,the improvement of FTA depth is conducive to the value chain cooperation among the Belt and Road countries,and this conclusion is still valid for the robustness test from multiple perspectives.Secondly,the deepening of FTAs can promote regional value chain cooperation by reducing trade costs and promoting direct investment,and the reduction of trade costs is the more important transmission channel.Thirdly,the increased depth of FTAs on non-tariff topics and"WTO-X"topics have a stronger effect on promoting the value chain cooperation among the Belt and Road countries,and the promoting effect is stronger for the countries with a high degree of initial regional value chain cooperation,and small geographical and cultural differences.Fourthly,while promoting the value added of state parties to flow out of the region,the deepening of FTAs will not inhibit the regional value chain cooperation between state parties and non-state parties.Our major contributions are as follows:Firstly,this paper analyzes the determinants of value chain cooperation among the Belt and Road countries from the perspective of FTAs,and expands the research perspective of existing literature.Secondly,this paper reveals that the deepening of FTA depth could promote the value chain cooperation among countries by reducing trade costs and promoting direct investment.Thirdly,this paper confirms that the deepening of FTAs among the Belt and Road countries has a certain inclusive effect on promoting value chain cooperation.