基于GeoSOS-FLUS模型的江苏省生态福祉时空演变及其预测研究

Spatio-temporal Pattern Evolution and Prediction of Ecological Well-being in Jiangsu Province Based on GeoSOS-FLUS Model

作为人类最普惠的民生福祉,生态福祉的测度与评估研究对于指导区域可持续发展具有重要意义。以江苏省为案例研究区,基于生态系统服务理论,采用生态系统贡献率模型测度1995~2020年研究区生态福祉及其时空演变特征;在此基础上,借助GeoSOS-FLUS模型预测江苏省2025年生态福祉的时空流转盈亏与空间自相关性。结果表明:(1)1995~2020年,江苏省生态福祉总量和人均生态福祉呈波动下降的态势,25年间生态-经济产出效率增幅达540.24%。(2)与2020年相比,2025年江苏省生态福祉总量增加了10.84亿元,增幅1.05%,达1039.21亿元。13个评价单元中除地处苏北的宿迁、盐城和连云港生态福祉总量略有下降外,其余地市均有不同程度的增加。(3)1995~2025年,江苏省土地利用变化导致的生态福祉亏损要大于生态福祉盈利,总体呈亏损状态。其中,水域生态系统是维持生态福祉总量的重要贡献类型,耕地转为建设用地是造成江苏生态福祉亏损的主要原因。(4)1995~2025年,江苏省生态-经济产出效率与人均生态福祉之间具有显著的空间依赖效应,呈显著的空间负相关性。2015年以后,研究区生态优势转换为经济发展动力有所增强,呈生态文明建设与社会经济建设协同发展的良好态势。13地市生态-经济产出效率与人均生态福祉空间关联性不高,主要为无显著空间相关性,空间聚集主要分布在苏北和苏南区域,聚集类型为低-高和高-低2种类型,未有低-低、高-高聚集类型。研究结果可为区域生态系统管理与生态文明建设提供理论与方法参考。

Ecological well-being,as the material product and utility provided by ecosystem,is closely related to human survival and development,and its scientific calculation is of great significance to regional sustainable development and the improvement of human well-being.In this study,ecosystem contribution rate was used to study regional ecological well-being of Jiangsu province and analyze its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics which was supported by the ecosystem service theory,and then,GeoSOS-FLUS model was used to predict the land use status of Jiangsu province in 2025,while,ecological well-being circulation and spatial autocorrelation were analyzed based on the change of land use from 1995 to 2025.The results show that:(1)From 1995 to 2020,the total ecological well-being and per capita ecological well-being in Jiangsu province decreased with fluctuation,and the eco-economic output efficiency increased by 540.24%.(2)It was predicted that the total ecological well-being of Jiangsu province will increase slightly,with an improvement of 1.05%compared with 2020.Among the 13 study units,only the total ecological well-being of the three cities in northern Jiangsu decreased slightly.(3)During the study period,the profit of ecological well-being in Jiangsu province was generally lower than the loss caused by the change of land use,which can be explained by the results that water ecosystem was an important contribution type to maintain ecological well-being,and the conversion of cultivated land to construction land was the main reason for the spatial loss of ecological well-being in Jiangsu Province.(4)There was a significant spatial negative correlation between eco-economic output efficiency and per capita ecological well-being in Jiangsu province from 1995 to 2025,but the local spatial correlation was not significantly obvious,which was mainly characterized by low-high cluster and high-low cluster,and mainly concentrated in north and south of Jiangsu province.This study can provide theoretical and methodological references for refined management of regional ecosystem and ecological civilization construction.