新兴基础设施建设与城市产业结构升级——基于“宽带中国”试点的准自然实验

Network Infrastructure Construction and City Industrial Structure Upgrading:Quasi Natural Expriment based On "Broadband China" Pilot

产业结构升级是中国经济高质量发展的核心和关键。文章基于2005—2018年中国278个城市的面板数据,将"宽带中国"试点视为一次准自然实验,采用渐进双重差分法实证检验了"宽带中国"试点对城市产业结构升级的影响及其传导机制。研究发现:(1)"宽带中国"试点促进了产业结构合理化和高级化水平,在进行了一系列稳健性检验后该结论依然成立。(2)将地形起伏度作为"宽带中国"试点设立的工具变量,得到了与基准回归一致的结论。(3)"宽带中国"试点所促成的合理化的变动主要是通过城市内资源的再配置,高级化的变动主要是通过城市间资源的再配置,并具体通过技术创新、金融发展以及人力资本等途径促进产业结构升级。(4)西部城市"宽带中国"试点促进了产业结构合理化,但并未促进高级化;中部城市试点既促进了合理化也促进了高级化;东部城市试点促进了高级化,但并未促进合理化。因此,要以"新基建"为强力"引擎",充分发挥互联网在资源再配置中的作用,深度挖掘和持续释放信息化、数字化、网络化发展红利,为国家产业结构调整提供支撑。

The upgrading of industrial structure is the core and key to the high-quality development of China’s economy.Based on the panel data of 278 cities in China from 2005 to 2018,this paper regards the"broadband China"pilot as a quasi natural experiment,and empirically tests the impact of the"broadband China"pilot on the upgrading of industrial structure and its transmission mechanism by using the progressive double difference method.The results show that,the pilot of"broadband China"has promoted the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure,and the conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests.Taking the relief as the tool variable of"broadband China"pilot project,the conclusion is consistent with the benchmark regression.The rationalization of"broadband China"pilot project is mainly through the reallocation of resources in cities,and the advanced change is mainly through the reallocation of resources between cities,and specifically through technological innovation,financial development and human capital to promote the upgrading of industrial structure.The pilot of"broadband China"in western cities has promoted the rationalization of industrial structure,but not the upgrading;the pilot in central cities has promoted both rationalization and upgrading;the pilot in eastern cities has promoted the upgrading,but not the rationalization.Therefore,we should take the"new infrastructure"as a powerful"engine",give full play to the role of the Internet in the re allocation of resources,deeply tap and continuously release the dividends of informatization,digitization and networking development,and provide support for the adjustment of national industrial structure.