黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的耦合协调:评价与趋势

Evaluation and Trend Prediction of Coupling Coordination between Ecological Protection and High-quality Development in the Yellow River Basin

构建黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展耦合协调评价指标体系,对2006—2019年黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的耦合协调度进行测度,并运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对耦合协调度进行预测。结果显示:(1)黄河流域生态保护指数和高质量发展指数均呈现日益提升的变化趋势,生态保护与高质量发展关系经历了从"发展滞后"到"保护滞后"的转变;(2)耦合度呈现"先下降后上升"的演化态势,耦合关系处于拮抗阶段;(3)耦合协调度日益提升,呈现从"失调"向"协调"的转变趋势,区域层面表现出从"上游当先"向"中游超越"再向"下游领衔"的演进路径;(4)预测结果显示,黄河流域耦合协调度在2022年突破0.8,进入良好协调状态。

By constructing the evaluation index system of the coupling coordination degree of ecological protection and high-quality development,using coupling coordination degree model,this paper measures the coupling coordination degree of ecological protection and high-quality development in Yellow River Basin during 2006-2019,and predicts the coupling coordination degree in the future by using the grey GM(1,1)model.The results show that:(1)The ecological protection index and high-quality development index of the Yellow River Basin are both showing an increasing trend.The relationship between ecological protection and high-quality development has undergone a transition from"lagging development"to lagging protection";(2)The degree of coupling presents an evolutionary trend of"first decline and then rise",and the coupling relationship is in an antagonistic stage;(3)The degree of coupling coordination is increasing,showing a trend from maladjustment"to coordination",and the regional level presents an evolution path from"upstream leading"to"midstream surpassing"to downstream leading";(4)The prediction results show that the coupling coordination degree of the Yellow River Basin will exceed 0.8 in 2022,entering a good state of coordination.