房产税能否抑制实体经济“脱实向虚”——来自上海和重庆的经验分析

Can Real Estate Tax Restrain the Development of the Real Economy from the Real to the Virtual Tendency:Analysis of Experience from Shanghai and Chongqing

本文利用我国35个大中城市2006-2018年的平衡面板数据,基于上海和重庆在2011年实施的房产税试点政策,运用合成控制法检验房产税政策能否抑制实体经济"脱实向虚"发展的趋势。研究结果显示,房产税政策能够有效地遏制地区房地产业新增产值占GDP的比重的上升,促使实体企业回归主业,增加实体投资,实现促进实体经济朝着"脱虚返实"方向发展的作用。鉴于此,本文提出应加快推进房产税政策在全国范围内的实施,并在政府补贴、银行贷款等方面采取一系列配套措施鼓励实体企业进行更多的实体投资。

This article uses the balance panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2006 to 2018,based on the pilot property tax policies implemented by Shanghai and Chongqing in 2011,and uses the synthetic control method to test whether the property tax policy can restrain the real economy from being"removed from reality"Development trend.The research results show that the real estate tax policy can effectively curb the increase in the value-added of the real estate industry in the region,promote the return of real enterprises to the main business,increase real investment,and promote the development of the real economy in the direction of"returning from the virtual to the real".In view of this,this article proposes to accelerate the implementation of real estate tax policies nationwide,and adopt a series of supporting measures in government subsidies,bank loans,etc.to encourage entities to make more entity investments.