基于Mann-Kendall法的大运河枫桥站水文变化分析

Analysis on Hydrological Variation of Fengqiao Gauge in Grand Canal Based on Mann-Kendall Test

以大运河枫桥水文站1977~2019年共43年的逐日水位和逐日流量资料为依据,采用MannKendall检验方法分析该站水文特征与变化。趋势性检验表明,枫桥站水位和流量均呈现明显的上升趋势,并且通过了99%显著性检验,线性增长速率分别为0.11m/10a和17.4m^(3)/(s·10a);突变性检验表明,枫桥站汛期平均水位在2011年发生突变,年最高水位在2010年发生突变。

Based on the daily water level and daily flow data of Fengqiao Gauge in Grand Canal for43 years from 1977 to 2019,the Mann-Kendall test method was used to analyze the hydrological characteristics and changes of the station.The trend test showed that the water level and flow rate of Fengqiao Gauge presented an obvious rising trend,and passed the 99%significance test.The linear growth rate was 0.11 m/10 a and 17.4 m^(3)/(s·10 a),respectively.The test of abrupt change showed that the average water level of Fengqiao Gauge during flood season had a mutation in 2011,and the annual maximum water level had a mutation in 2010.