基于货运轨迹数据的城市间货物流动特征分析

Analysis of Movement Characteristics of Inter-Urban Goods Based on Freight Trajectory Data

大规模的跨城市货运轨迹获取相对困难,城市间的货物流动规律与特征的相关研究较少。因此,以湖南省的货运轨迹数据为例,对湖南省内14个行政市、自治州之间货运物流的位移和空间交互特征进行了分析。结果表明:湖南省内各城市间货运物流的位移距离呈现双峰威布尔分布,在20 km和200 km处出现货运距离的高峰值。不同城市间的货运联系强度存在明显差异,少数城市对,如长沙-衡阳、长沙-常德等的货运联系强度在湖南省整个物流网络中占据主导地位。在缺乏真实货运联系数据时,重力模型和辐射模型都能基于静态的人口或国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)统计数据对城市间的货运联系强度进行预测。重力模型预测值与真实值的相关系数达到0.84,较辐射模型准确度更高。

It is relatively difficult to obtain large-scale crosscity freight trajectory,and there are few studies on the regularity and characteristics of inter-urban goods movement.Therefore,we use the freight trajectory data of Hunan Province as the data source to analyze the displacement and spatial interaction characteristics of freight trajectory among 14 administrative cities and autonomous prefectures.The results show that the displacement of inter-urban goods in Hunan follows a bimodal Weibull distribution,with its high peaks at 20 km and200 km,respectively.The intensity values of freight connection vary among city pairs.A few city pairs,such as Changsha to Hengyang and Changsha to Changde,have dominant positions in the logistics network.In the absence of real freight connection data,both gravity model and radiation model can predict the intensity of freight connection between cities based on static population or GDP statistics.The correlation coefficient between the predicted values and the real values of the gravity model is 0.84,which is more accurate than the radiation model.