一种顾及多参数的冬小麦遥感估产方法与应用

A method of winter wheat yield estimation by considering multiple parameters andits application

针对传统农业估产方法效率低、成本高的现状,选择全国冬小麦种植大省——河南省作为研究区,提出一种顾及多参数的冬小麦遥感估产方法。该方法以增强型植被指数(EVI)、作物水分胁迫指数(CWSI)、地表温度及趋势产量作为模型驱动因子,采用最小二乘法构建研究区及各省辖市域冬小麦估产模型,并在监测和预报模式下进行精度验证。采用多个年份MODIS数据与同时期统计数据进行试验。结论如下:在监测模式下,研究区的估产模型精度为96.16%,省辖市域的估产模型精度均高于92%;在预报模式下,估产精度随着模型输入数据的不断更新,在大部分地区逐渐逼近监测模式下的估产精度。试验结果表明本文方法的有效性,可为河南省粮食政策制定、农业保险赔付比率确定,提供参考和借鉴。

Aiming at the low efficiency and high cost of traditional agricultural yield estimation methods,a model of winter wheat yield estimation by remote sensing considering multi-parameters was proposed in this paper.The model adopt enhanced vegetation index(EVI),crop water stress index(CWSI),surface temperature and trend yield as the driving factors,which were combined by least square(LS).In this paper,Henan Province,a major winter wheat planting province in China,was selected as the study area,and then,MODIS data of multiple years and statistical data of the same period were used to carry on the experiment.Finally,the accuracy was verified under the monitoring and forecasting model.The results show that the precision of the model is 96.16%in the study area,and the precision is higher than 92%for the city area under the provincial jurisdiction.In the forecast model,the precision of yield estimation is updated with the input data of the model,thus,the method is effective and could provide reference for grain policy formulation and agricultural insurance compensation ratio determination in Henan Province.