云南省水汽特征及其与滑坡形变量关联性分析

Analysis of water vapor characteristics and its correlation with landslide shape variables in Yunnan Province

针对传统信息量模型在滑坡易发性评价中,未考虑将大气可降水量(PWV)评价因子进行信息量叠加,对易发性分区结果造成影响的问题,该文提出将PWV因子引入滑坡易发性评价的方法。首先统计分析了2015—2019年云南省水汽特征;其次采用3种相关性分析方法评估降雨量、PWV和滑坡三者之间的相关性;最后利用信息量模型对云南省各区域进行滑坡易发性评价分析,并将引入PWV因子以及去除PWV因子进行滑坡易发性分析结果进行对比。结果表明:①2015—2019年云南省降雨量月变量整体呈减少趋势,2019年降雨量急剧减少;②降雨量与PWV间相关系数为0.79,降雨量与滑坡易发区形变量间相关系数为0.89,PWV与滑坡易发区形变量间相关系数为0.76,表明降雨量、PWV与滑坡间存在较强的相关性;③引入PWV因子进行滑坡易发性评价后,进一步提升了滑坡易发性正确率,对滑坡灾害研究具有重要意义。

Aiming at the problem of traditional information model in the evaluation of landslide susceptibility,the information content is directly superimposed without considering the evaluation factor:precipitable water vapor(PWV),which will adversely affect the results of susceptibility zoning.This paper proposed a landslide hazard susceptibility evaluation method by introducing the PWV factor.Firstly,the characteristics of water vapor in Yunnan Province from 2015 to 2019 were statistically analyzed.Secondly,three correlation analysis methods were used to evaluate the correlation among rainfall,PWV and landslide.Thirdly,the information model was used to evaluate and analyze the landslide susceptibility of each region in Yunnan Province,and the results of landslide susceptibility analysis are compared by introducing PWV factor and removing PWV factor.The results showed that:①The overall monthly variable of rainfall in Yunnan Province from 2015 to 2019showed a decreasing trend,and the rainfall in 2019decreased sharply.②The correlation coefficient between rainfall and PWV is 0.79,the correlation coefficient between rainfall and shape variables in landslide-prone areas is 0.89,and the correlation coefficient between PWV and shape variables in landslide-prone areas is 0.76,indicating that there is a strong correlation between rainfall,PWV and landslide.③After introducing PWV factor to evaluate landslide susceptibility,the accuracy of landslide susceptibility is further improved,which is of great significance for landslide hazard research.