基于GIS与SWAT模型的径流时空模拟研究

The Runoff Space-time Simulation Research Based on GIS and SWAT Model

人类充分开发利用了土地资源,在极大地促进经济发展的同时,也对人类赖以生存的生态环境、气候环境和水环境产生了深远的影响。根据新疆开都—孔雀河流域土地利用与覆被变化的特点,获取了3期土地利用和气象数据,力求在理论上对开都—孔雀河流域的水文状况建立精确的SWAT水文模型,利用GIS技术分割子流域,建立与模型相关的地理信息数据库,模拟3个年代径流量的时空变化,探讨SWAT准确地模拟开都—孔雀河流域径流量的可能性,并得出以下结论:决定性系数R^2分别为0.96、0.92、0.90和0.81、0.82、0.84,效率系数NSE分别为0.73、0.74、0.76和0.78、0.75、0.85,相对误差R_E分别为-1.15%、5.55%、10.89%和8.76%、4.18%、5.43%,证明SWAT模型在开都—孔雀河流域具有良好的适用性。

The full development and utilization of land resources by mankind has greatly promoted economic development,and at the same time has had a profound impact on the ecological environment,climate environment and water environment that mankind depends on for survival.Based on the characteristics of land use and cover change in the Kaidu-Kenqi River Basin in Xinjiang Province China,this paper obtains land use and meteorological data for three phases,and strives to theoretically accurately establish a SWAT hydrological model of the hydrological conditions in the Kaidu-Kenqi River Basin.GIS technology divides the sub-basins,establishes the model-related geographic information database,simulates the temporal and spatial changes of runoff in three eras,and explores the possibility of whether SWAT can accurately simulate the runoff of the Kaidu-Kenqi River Basin.The following conclusions are drawn:the deterministic coefficient R2 is respectively 0.96,0.92,0.90,and 0.81,0.82,0.84,the efficiency coefficient NSE is respectively 0.73,0.74,0.76,and 0.78,0.75,0.85,and the relative error RE is respectively-1.15%,5.55%,10.89%,and 8.76%,4.18%,5.43%,which prove that the SWAT model has good applicability in the Kaidu-Kenqi River Basin.