气象条件对攀枝花地区主要传染病的影响研究

Study on the Influence of Meteorological Conditions on Major Infectious Diseases in Panzhihua Area

为探讨气象要素对攀枝花地区主要传染病(手足口病、流感、痢疾、其他感染性腹泻、结核性胸膜炎)的影响程度,利用Spearman相关系数定性分析攀枝花2010-2019年传染病患病人数与同期气象要素关系,采用广义相加模型和分布滞后非线性模型定量研究气温、风速对患病人数的影响,并按年龄分层考虑温-湿协同作用。结果表明:(1)手足口病、流感、痢疾、腹泻高发群体为少儿(0~17岁),而结核性胸膜炎高发于中青年(18~64岁)。(2)结核性胸膜炎与流感在冬春季高发,其中结核性胸膜炎在低压时不易发病,而流感在高温、低压及低日照时数的气象条件下不易发病。腹泻、痢疾及手足口病在夏季高发,腹泻和痢疾在低温、低湿条件下不易发病,而手足口病在低温、高压、低湿等气象条件下不易发病。(3)气温、风速对传染病的影响均有明显滞后性,在21℃~23℃最舒适气温段及1.3~1.6 m/s、2~2.7 m/s风速段,传染病发病风险均最低。不同年龄段人群在温-湿协同作用下对传染病发病的响应有一定差异。

In order to explore the influence degree of meteorological factors on major infectious diseases(hand-foot-mouth disease,influenza,dysentery,other infectious diarrhea and tuberculous pleurisy)in Panzhihua,the relationship between the number of patients with infectious diseases and meteorological factors in the same period in 2010-2019 was qualitatively analyzed by Spearman correlation coefficient,and the influence of temperature and wind speed on the number of patients was quantitatively studied by generalized addition model and nonlinear model with distributed lag.The temperature-humidity synergy was considered by age stratification.The results showed that:(1)The high incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease,influenza,dysentery and diarrhea was among children(0-17 years old),while tuberculous pleurisy was high among young and middle-aged people(18-64 years old).(2)The incidence oftuberculouspleurisy and influenza ishigh in winter and spring,in which tuberculous pleurisy is not easy to occur underlow pressure,while influenza is not easy to occur under the meteorological conditions of high temperature,low pressure and low sunshine hours.Diarrhea,dysentery and hand-foot-mouth disease have a high incidence in summer.Diarrhea and dysentery are not easy to occur under low temperature and low humidity,while hand-foot-mouth disease is not easy to occur under low temperature,high pressure and low humidity.(3)The influence of air temperature and wind speed on infectious diseases is obviously lagging behind,and the incidence risk of infectious diseases is the lowest in the most comfortable air temperature range of 21℃-23℃and the wind speed range of 1.3-1.6 m/s and 2-2.7 m/s.Different age groups have different responses to the incidence of infectious diseases under the synergistic effect of temperature and humidity.