冰区船载荷识别不确定性的区间分析方法

Method of Uncertainty Analysis of the Load Identification On-Board Ice-Going Vessels

冰载荷识别的适定求解是冰区船实尺度监测反演的核心,针对信息不完备条件下冰载荷识别问题,面向识别结果不确定性评估建立区间分析理论的非概率性方法。采用形函数表征冰载荷快速识别模型中冰激时域响应。基于Taylor展开及区间扩张理论建立冰载荷识别不确定性估计的区间分析方法。采用分析识别计及结构参数及测试信号双不确定特征的冰载荷界值。提出的预报方法能较为有效识别出涵盖冰载荷真值的区间解,可为冰区船研发设计及安全预警提供更为可靠的冰载荷工况。

A well-posed solution for the ice load identification is the core of full-scale monitoring onboard ice-going vessels.Aimed at the ice load identification problem in the case of incomplete information,a non-probabilistic method based on the theory of interval analysis was proposed to assess the uncertainty of identification results.The shape function was used to represent the ice-induced structure response in the time-domain in the fast ice load identification model.The interval analysis method of uncertainty estimation of ice load identification was established based on the Taylor expansion and interval expansion theories.Using the calculation analysis of samples the numerical cases,limit values of ice load were identified considering the characteristics of dual uncertainties,structural parameters and measured signals.The method proposed can identify the interval solution effectively which include the true values of ice load.This method can provide more reliable ice load conditions for the designing and safety pre-warning of ice-going vessels.