基于云模型的船用动力装置可靠性评估

Reliability Evaluation of Marine Power Plant Based on Cloud Models

动力装置作为船舶的“心脏”,其可靠性的准确评估对船舶安全稳定运行至关重要。在云模型的基础上引入加权及加速因子的概念,在评估船用动力装置可靠性时考虑各子系统的相互作用以及对环境因素的敏感程度,并与传统的蒙特卡罗抽样方法进行对比,得到各子系的可靠度分布以及平均故障间隔时间。研究结果表明:柴油机是动力装置中的薄弱环节,基于加权、加权加速云模型计算的平均故障间隔时间相较于传统蒙特卡罗抽样方法的结果分别减小34.4%、35.0%,在多任务剖面下具有较高的可信度,这证明了该方法的准确性和有效性。

As the"heart"of the ship,the accurate evaluation of the reliability of the power plant is very important for the safe and stable operation of the ship.On the basis of cloud model,the concepts of weighting and acceleration factor are introduced.When evaluating the reliability of marine power plant,the interaction of subsystems and the sensitivity to environmental factors are considered.Compared with the traditional Monte Carlo sampling method,the reliability distribution and mean time between failures of subsystems are obtained.The results show that the diesel engine is the weak link in the power plant.Compared with the traditional Monte Carlo sampling method,the mean time between failures calculated by weighted and weighted acceleration cloud models are reduced by 34.4%and 35.0%.It has high reliability in multi-mission profile,which proves the accuracy and effectiveness of the method.