英国后“脱欧”时代的现实困境与发展趋势:北爱政治体制的分析视角

Brexit Era of Great Britain:Perspective on Northern Ireland's Political System

北爱问题深刻嵌入了欧洲一体化进程、英国分权化改革和地方族群冲突等多个层次的重大议题,处于多个现代社会科学领域研究面向的交汇处。自1998年开启和平进程以来,虽然北爱民主政治的体制建设和运作有了很大程度的改善,但是整个政治和族群仍然具有脆弱性且充满变数。如今,虽然北爱议会及其行政委员会经历多年停摆后恢复运作,但随着母国英国相继步入"脱欧"和后"脱欧"时代,北爱政治体制面临着自1998年和平进程以来最大的外部冲击。这一冲击已经深刻影响到北爱地区自治政府运作及其政党建设,导致行政机构停摆、政党极化和碎片化,甚至带来地方分离主义和潜在族群冲突的升级。英国后"脱欧"时代和新冠疫情大流行这两只"黑天鹅"给北爱带来了强烈的双重冲击,导致北爱在外部结构性变动和自身能动性策略两个方面引发"安全困境",并可能造成更大的政治发展难题。不仅如此,北爱问题的出现和升级还将反过来深刻影响英国民主危机、英欧经贸谈判、全球分离主义倾向以及新冠疫情防控等多个重大命题。

The Northern Ireland issue is deeply embedded in major issues at multiple levels,such as the European integration process,the British decentralization reform,and local ethnic conflicts,where is the intersection of multiple fields in social science.Since the beginning of the peace process in 1998,although the institutional building and operation of the democratic politics in Northern Ireland have improved a lot,the construction of political organization are still fragile.While the Northern Ireland administrative committee have resumed operations in 2020,after many years of suspension,the political system of Northern Ireland is facing the biggest threats since 1998,under the clouds from process of“Brexit”.External shocks have profoundly affected the operation of the autonomous government and its party building in Northern Ireland,facing the suspension of administrative institutions,political party polarization and fragmentation,and even escalation of local separatism and potential ethnic conflicts.Unfortunately,the two“black swans”,the post-Brexit era and COVID-19 pandemic,have brought a strong double impact to Northern Ireland,leading to a“security dilemma”in Northern Ireland in terms of external structural changes and its own initiative strategy,which may cause greater political development problems.Besides,the re-emergence and escalation of the Northern Ireland issue will in turn profoundly affect many problems nowadays,such as the British democratic crisis,the negotiations between the UK and Europe,the tendency of global separatism,and the prevention and control of the epidemic.