围绕治理能力的政治发展:国家间差异的历史起源

Political Development as Governance Capacity:The Historical Origins of Cross-National Variation

政治发展的核心是提升国家治理能力,即政府为民众提供安定、繁荣的生活环境的能力。为什么国家间的治理能力存在很大差异?已有研究大多采用主观评估指数来测量治理能力,且经常关注内生性较强的解释变量,所做出的因果论断难以令人信服。鉴于此,本文依据客观绩效指标来测量治理能力,并试图探究在较长历史时期中形成的结构性因素如何影响一国的治理能力。基于对全球各国当代治理数据的实证分析,本文发现:国家形态在历史上存在的时间长短是国家治理能力的重要来源,前现代社会所积累的制度记忆和官僚文化会潜移默化地影响当代社会的治理。分裂的族群关系极大地制约着治理能力的发展。英国的殖民统治经历和普通法传统并不能给发展中国家带来更好的治理能力,而被法国殖民的经历给发展中国家留下明显的负面遗产。运用实证研究的结论,我们可以更好地理解当代中国治理能力的历史文化根源。

The core of political development is to improve national governance capacity,or the government’s ability to provide stability and prosperity for the people.Why explains the substantial variations in governance capabilities between countries?Most of the existing studies use subjective evaluation index to measure governance ability,and often pay attention to explanatory variables that are strongly endogenous,and their causal findings are largely unconvincing.In view of this,this article measures governance capabilities based on objective performance indicators,and attempts to explore how long-running structural factors affect a country’s governance capabilities.Based on empirical analysis of contemporary governance data from countries around the world,the study found state history to be an important source of governance capabilities,as the institutional memory and bureaucratic culture accumulated in premodern society will subtly affect contemporary governance.Ethnic division greatly hinders the development of governance capabilities.British colonial rule and common law traditions did not bring better governance capabilities to developing countries,while French colonial rule left developing countries with a clear negative legacy.These findings enable us to better understand the historical and cultural roots of contemporary Chinese governance.