选举公平与马来西亚选民的投票偏好研究

Election Fairness and Voting Preference in Malaysia

基于世界价值观调查(WVS)2012年马来西亚的调查数据,本文运用Logistic回归模型,从机会公平和规则公平两个维度,探究了选举公平与马来西亚选民投票偏好之间的关系。研究发现,选举规则公平比选举机会公平更可能影响选民的投票偏好,当选民认为选举规则不公平时,其投票偏好更倾向于反对党。选民对选举公平的呼唤实质上是对民主化的追求,这在执政党和反对党的博弈中发挥着极其关键的作用。

Based on the third wave of World Values Survey(WVS)in Malaysia in 2012,this paper uses logistic regression model to explore the relationship between election fairness and voting preference in Malaysia from opportunity fairness and rule fairness of election.This study finds that rule fairness are more likely to affect voters’preferences than opportunity fairness,and the voters think the rules of election are more unfair,the more likely they are to vote for the opposition.Voters’calling for election fairness is essentially the pursuit of democratization,which is crucial to the victory of the ruling party and the opposition parties in the game of election.