中国金融开放的路径选择和风险防范

Path Selection and Risk Prevention for China′s Financial Opening up

我国金融开放至今已40余年。党的十八大以来,新一轮对外开放步伐加快,本轮金融开放具有高水平、高质量、全面开放的特点。党的二十大进一步指出,坚持高水平对外开放,加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。本文在系统梳理我国金融开放发展历程和现状的基础上,总结了我国金融开放的趋势特点,并展望未来金融进一步开放的发展前景、开放路径和重点领域。通过研究发现,尽管金融开放能够带来金融机构市场化竞争、降低企业融资依赖和提高公司治理透明度以及在长期来看提高宏观经济产出等好处,但这些好处的实现,需要一定的政治经济环境支持。如果尚未客观评估开放条件就贸然实行金融自由化,短期来看可能会给金融系统稳定性造成冲击,甚至会带来金融危机。因此本文建议:第一,坚持和加强党对金融工作的领导;第二,有序推进金融开放,把握开放节奏;第三,监控跨境资本流动,必要时实行外汇干预;第四,完善金融监管配套制度,健全宏观审慎微观监管“两位一体”的监管框架;第五,保持稳定且独立的货币政策;第六,提高人民币国际化水平,完善人民币离岸在岸市场秩序。

China′s financial opening up has sustained for more than 40 years.Since 2017,the pace of a new round of opening up has been accelerated.This round of financial opening has the characteristics of high⁃level,high⁃quality,and all⁃round opening.The report of the 20th National Congress continues to emphasize the promotion of high⁃level opening up,and accelerate the formation of a new development paradigm featuring dual circulation,in which domestic and overseas markets reinforce each other,with the do⁃mestic market as the mainstay.On the basis of systematically sorting out the development of our country′s financial opening up,this paper summarizes on the trend and characteristics of the financial opening up.It also offers an outlook on the future prospect,the path,and key areas for further opening up.The research finds that:even though financial opening can bring forth the benefits of market⁃oriented competition among financial institutions,reducing corporate′s financing dependency,raising governance trans⁃parency,and enhancing macro economic output in the long run,the realization of these benefits requires political and economic en⁃vironmental support.If implementing financial liberalization without proper assessment of the actual situations for opening up,the stability of the financial system might be impacted in the short term,even triggering off financial crisis.Therefore,the paper sug⁃gests that:firstly,we should stick to and strengthen the CPC′s leadership on the financial work;secondly,properly manage the step of financial opening up;thirdly,supervise cross⁃border capital flow and conduct foreign currency intervention if necessary;fourth⁃ly,improve on the corresponding financial regulatory policies,strengthen the“two⁃in⁃one”regulatory framework for the macro,prudent and micro regulation;fifthly,maintain a steady and independent currency policy;and sixthly,enhance the internationaliza⁃of RMB and the order of the onshore and offshore RMB market.