落实“双碳”目标 开展碳排放风险保险

Implementing the“double carbon”goal and developing carbon emission risk insurance

在论证全球碳排放与气候灾害,全球、中国碳排放与GDP的关联性及中国宏观碳排放风险格局的基础上,从财政、金融、保险视角分析了支持国家“双碳”目标实施的具体策略.研究发现:1)全球碳排放与气候灾害呈显著的正相关关系,碳排放是气候灾害的“根源”;2)全球碳排放与人均GDP的关联性总体呈显著的正相关关系,全球人均GDP与广义、狭义气候灾害损失呈现类似环境“库兹涅茨曲线(Kuznets curve)(倒U形)”的特征,全球碳排放与人均GDP密切关联,影响着广义与狭义气候灾害;3)中国宏观碳排放风险呈显著东高西低的区域分异.据此,本文提出为减轻中国碳排放风险、缩小碳排放风险行业与区域差异,应建立促进我国“火电与绿电”互补、行业与区域协同发展的碳排放风险保险制度,构建“投保人-保险人-政府”三位一体的碳排放风险保险模式,为实现“双碳”目标,特别是“碳中和”目标提供保险保障.

Carbon emissions peak and carbon neutrality goal,or the“double carbon”objectives,are a major measure for China to cope with global climate changes.Relationship between global carbon emissions and climate disasters,as well as relationship between global and Chinese carbon emissions and GDP,and China's macro carbon emission risk pattern,have been clearly demonstrated.Specific strategies to support implementation of national“double carbon”goal from the perspective of finance and banking are analyzed.Significant positive correlation is found between global carbon emissions and climate disasters,and carbon emissions are the“root”of climate disasters.Significant positive correlation is found between global carbon emissions and GDP.Global per capita GDP and losses from generalized and narrow climate disasters are like the environmental“Kuznets curve(inverted U shape)”,i.e.,the close correlation between global carbon emissions and GDP per capita affects generalized and narrow climate disasters.China’s macro carbon emission risk shows a significant regional differentiation of high in the East and low in the West.We propose that to narrow industrial and regional differences in carbon emission risk,a carbon emission risk insurance system be established to promote complementary development of thermal power and green power and coordinated development of industries and regions.It is necessary to build a carbon emission risk insurance model integrating policyholder-insurer-government.The above measures will provide insurance protection for China to implement the"dual carbon"goal.