中国大葱价格波动特征的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Price Fluctuation Characteristics of Allium fistulosum in China

近年来,大葱价格的剧烈波动使大葱的经销商和消费者等市场相关方均受到了不小的影响,以2011—2018年全国大葱月度批发价格为研究对象,首先,对全国大葱价格波动态势进行了描述性统计分析,其次,采用Census X-12季节调整法和H-P滤波法将大葱价格进行趋势性、周期性、季节性和随机性分解。结果表明:大葱价格季节性波动特征明显,不规则波动特征并未呈现出明显的增长或下降趋势,每个大葱价格波动周期的时间长短和波动幅度均不相同,无明显周期波动特征。

In recent years,the sharp fluctuation of Allium fistulosum price has greatly affected both the main operators and consumers of Allium fistulosum.The annual wholesale price of Allium fistulosum were taken as the research object in 2011—2018.Firstly,the descriptive statistical analysis of the fluctuation trend of the national price of Allium fistulosum was carried out.Secondly,the census X-12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering methodwere used to decompose the price of Allium fistulosum into trend,periodicity,seasonality and randomness.The results showed that the seasonal fluctuation characteristics of Allium fistulosum price were obvious,and the irregular fluctuation characteristics did not show a significant trend of growth or decline.The duration and fluctuation range of each price fluctuation cycle were different,and the influencing factors of different cycles were also different.