摘要
2000年以来,我国鲜梨价格频繁波动。2013年和2018年受灾害天气的影响,梨产量大幅下降,导致先后出现两次剧烈价格波动,使消费者福利受到损失,也损害了我国梨产业的国际竞争力。根据布瑞克农业大数据库公开数据,对全国2011—2019年梨季度价格变化情况进行分析,运用ARIMA模型对2020年梨季度价格进行短期预测,旨在为国家梨市场宏观调控提供价格预警分析,为梨生产和销售决策提供参考,也为相关政策部门稳定市场提供科学依据。
Since 2000,the prices of pears in China have experienced frequent long-term fluctuations.In 2013 and 2018,due to the impact of severe weather,the production of pears fell sharply,resulting in two dramatic fluctuations in the prices of pears.The loss has adversely affected the international competitiveness of China′s pear industry.ARIMA model is used to forecast the 2020 pear price through public quarterly data in 2011—2019 from www.agdata.cn.The aim of this article is to provide price early-warning analysis for the national pear market macroeconomic regulation and stabilize market regulation capabilities.
作者
耿献辉
安宁
GENG Xian-hui;AN Ning(School of economics and management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China)
出处
《北方果树》
2020年第2期1-4,共4页
Northern Fruits
基金
国家现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金资助(CARS-28).
