基于系统动力学的地下物流系统对城市发展影响研究

Research on the Impacts of Underground Logistic System on Urban Development Based on System Dynamics

地下物流系统(Underground Logistics System,ULS)可缓解城市交通拥堵,促进城市可持续发展。然而制约地下物流走向实践的原因之一是缺乏量化效益分析,ULS对城市发展影响的定量化分析不足。本文采用系统动力学方法,构建了ULS对城市发展影响的系统动力学模型,系统地分析了ULS对城市经济、社会和环境的有利影响,并以北京市为例,选取ULS分担率为控制变量进行仿真分析,结果表明ULS对缓解交通压力、改善城市生态环境、缓解城市空间资源紧张和增加城市就业等方面具有重要的影响。

Underground logistics system(ULS)is a new idea to alleviate urban traffic congestion and promote urban sustainable development.However,one of the reasons that restrict the development of underground logistics is the lack of quantitative benefit analysis of ULS on urban development.A complex model reflecting the positive impacts of ULS on urban economy,environment,and society is constructed using System Dynamics.The model runs in Vensim PLE software and Beijing is used as a case study.The share rate of ULS is chosen as the control variable for simulation,and the results reveal that ULS has significant impacts on the alleviation of the traffic pressure,improvement of the urban ecological environment,effective utilization of urban space resources,the increase of employed population and so on.