从“零问题”到安全化:21世纪以来土耳其对叙利亚外交政策

From“Zero Problem”to Securitization:The Turkey's Foreign Policy Toward Syria since the 21st Century

21世纪以来,土耳其对叙利亚外交政策经历了三个发展阶段:2002年,土耳其对外抛出以经济合作为主轴的“零问题”睦邻周边外交政策,暂时化解了与叙利亚之间的“冷和平”关系;2011年,为加强中东地区影响力,土耳其选择了旨在使巴沙尔政权倒台的对叙政策,使土叙关系转为全面敌对状态,政策失败引发了土耳其周边外交和安全环境的双重恶化;2016年,土耳其对叙政策调整为“安全化”议程,重回维护国家安全利益的传统外交战略,但安全收益并未达到合理预期,对叙军事干预政策陷入两难。总体而言,土耳其对外推行的积极进取型外交使其地区影响力达到新的高度,但也造成沉重的社会经济负担,对外关系呈现出紧张化的不利局面。在当前中东地区和解浪潮的新形势下,对外缓和是土耳其改善对外关系、缓和国内矛盾的现实选择。对外推行缓和外交、实施“再接触”对叙政策、追求土叙两国关系正常化等对外目标已成为土耳其国内政治新的呼声。

Since 2002,the Turkish government has formulated a new foreign strategy based on changes in domestic and foreign situations,formed a new diplomatic thinking of strategic depth doctrine,and launched a“zero problem”good⁃neighborly foreign policy with economic cooperation as the main axis,which temporarily resolved the Turkish cold and peaceful relations between Syria.After 2011,in order to strengthen Turkey's influence in the Middle East,the Erdogan government chose a highly risky“regime change”policy towards Syria,which turned Turkey⁃Syria relations into a state of full hostility.The double deterioration of the security environment.Under such circumstances,after 2016,Turkey's policy toward Syria was adjusted to a“securitization”agenda,returning to the traditional diplomatic strategy of safeguarding national security interests,but the security benefits did not meet reasonable expectations,and its military intervention policy in Syria fell into a dilemma.In general,Turkey's aggressive diplomacy has brought its regional influence to a new height through multiple diplomatic tools such as military interventionism,pan⁃Islamism,and cultural soft power,but it has also caused a heavy social and economic burden.Relations have become tense.Under the new situation of the current wave of reconciliation in the Middle East,Turkey is pursuing détente diplomacy and implementing a“re⁃engagement”policy towards Syria.Calling for the normalization of relations between Turkey and Syria has become a new voice in Turkey's domestic politics.