苏丹过渡期政治转型的三大趋势述评

A Review of the Three Trends in Sudan’s Political Transformation During the Transitional Period

2019年4月,执政近30年的巴希尔政权倒台,苏丹从此进入了过渡期政治转型阶段。两年多来,苏丹国内各政治力量围绕权力分配及后过渡期长远利益,既激烈斗争又互相妥协,共同推动苏丹政治转型取得了一些成果。后巴希尔时代的苏丹呈现出政治民主化、政治倾向多元化和政治意识形态去极端化等三大趋势。在民主化方面,苏丹民运人士寄希望通过民主选举实现政权更迭;在多元化方面,苏丹传统右翼阵营的相对衰落和左翼力量的崛起是一大亮点;在去极端化方面,突出表现为对前伊斯兰政权及其意识形态的解构和清算。但是,苏丹保守派势力希望通过政治转型"软着落"来维护其既得利益,致使苏丹过渡政权出现了右倾的态势,加之经济发展问题、民生问题、外部大国干涉以及新冠疫情等国内外因素的影响,未来苏丹政治转型仍存在很大的不确定性。

In April 2019,the Bashir regime,which has been in power for nearly 30 years,collapsed,and the political situation of Sudan has entered a transitional period of political transformation.In the past two years,various political forces in Sudan have both fought fiercely and compromised with each other around the distribution of power and the long-term interests of the post-transition period.They have jointly promoted Sudan’s political transformation and achieved some results.In the post-Bashir era,there are three obvious trends:political democratization,diversification of political orientations and de-radicalization of political ideology.In terms of democratization,the Sudanese democratic movement hopes to achieve a change of government through democratic elections in the postBashir era;In terms of diversification,the relative decline of Sudan’s traditional right-wing camp and the rise of left-wing forces are a highlight;In terms of deradicalization,it is mainly manifested in the deconstruction of the former Islamic government and the purge of its ideology.However,the conservative forces hope to achieve a“soft landing”through political transformation and safeguard their vested interests,which has caused a shift to the right in Sudan’s transitional government.In addition,with the impact of economic development and livelihood issues,interference by external powers and domestic factors such as COVID-19,Sultan’s political transformation still faces great uncertainties in the future.