理解澳大利亚外交政策的制定——结合2017年外交政策白皮书的分析

Understanding Australia’s Foreign Policy Making:With an Analysis of the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper

2017年外交政策白皮书反映出澳大利亚外交政策继续在发生和演进的"变化",更反映出"不变",即旧有的、基本外交政策的延续。这是因为澳大利亚外交政策制定的主体、环境、价值观等结构性要素保持着既有的惯性,它们所达成的平衡在没有大的外力作用下将很难被打破。具体来说,几类主体对政策制定保持着固有、稳定的参与方式;环境要素与政策制定过程保持着活跃的互动,但是动力不足;群体性价值观扎根于历史,将长期存在于澳大利亚社会的思维惯性中,并辐射进外交政策。政策制定的基本面决定其改变将是渐进的,而方向性的改变需要内外因素、天时地利的配合。

Australia’s 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper signifies"changes",but mostly reflects the continuity of Australia’s foreign policy.Why is it so?And how do the structural forces like subjects,processes and values,work to maintain the status quo or drive changes in Australia’s foreign policy?It is found that current balance is secure and won’t be easy to break;changes will be gradual.Specifically,different categories of subjects influence foreign policy making in a similar way;domestic and international factors are interactive in the foreign policy making processes but not strong enough;some shared values that are deeply rooted in Australian history and society,will still be projected into foreign policy.