2017年澳大利亚对华政策“政经悖离”现象加速发展的内外动因评析

An Analysis on the Paradoxical Development of Sino-Australian Relations

2017年中澳关系"政经悖离"现象加速发展:特恩布尔政府一方面在政治上急剧右转,并进一步强化澳美军事同盟,以遏制中国在印太地区日益增长的力量和影响;另一方面希冀与中国加强经贸合作,以维持澳大利亚的经济繁荣与民众就业。特恩布尔对华政策的"政经悖离"既有国内政治斗争激化的内生性,亦有美国压力日益增大的外生性。澳国内右翼亲美保守势力强大,特恩布尔政府执政地位异常脆弱,这导致政府在决策时往往面临国内保守政治势力的强大压力。由于历史原因,澳自独立之日即奉行与超级大国结盟的立国之策,以获取经济利益和安全庇护。在从澳美同盟获利的同时,澳也不得不对美效忠,并甘为其驱使。澳美同盟的演变表明澳美两国的同盟关系并非主要基于两国文化、历史和价值观的相似性,而更多的是出于对政治、经济和安全利益的考量。作为中等强国,澳大利亚的国家利益与美国并不完全重合,并且它也不会自不量力到像美国一样,把扼制一个新兴超级力量崛起作为自己的战略目标。中国与澳大利亚的经济融合与依存仍会继续增强,这正是中澳两国关系不断深化的基础,也是澳大利亚政府领导人对华政策的基石。

2017 witnessed the acceleration of the paradoxical development of Sino-Australian relations:the Turnbull government had on the one hand politically turned right and intensified Australian-American military alliance to contain China’s rise in power and influence in the"Indo-Paeific"region;on the other hand,it aspired to maintain an intensified economic cooperation and trade with China in the hopes of keeping Australian prosperity and employment.The paradoxical development might be attributed at one level to Australia’s domestic politics and at another level to increasing American pressure.The powerful right-wring forces in Australia and the weakened Turnbull government led to the changed Australian China policy.Australia has pursued a strategy of aligning with a superpower since its independence in trade for economic benefits and protection.In return,Australia has to be committed to the alliance as well as the interest of the United States,which reveals the alliance is more based on shared political,economic and security interest rather than shared culture,history and value.As a middle power,Australia differs the United States in the fundamental interest and can hardly prioritize the containment of China in its strategic objectives.The momentum of economic integration and interdependence between these two nations remains strong,which bases Sino-Australian relations and makes it hard for any radical change in Australian China policy.