贵州修文河流域径流变化特征分析

Runoff variation characteristics of Xiuwen River Basin in Guizhou

以贵州修文径流站近30年的实测月径流资料及气象同期实测数据为基础,结合M-K突变检验、小波分析法以及偏相关分析法,探究喀斯特小流域径流变化特征。研究表明:1985—2012年,修文河流域径流年际变化呈不显著的上升趋势。季节波动差异明显,夏季流量最大,秋季次之,春季再次之,冬季径流最小;月均变化趋势呈现先上升后下降变化趋势,整体趋近于n型变化。年际变化周期大致为3年、5年和10年。在全球气候变暖的背景下,降雨对径流影响最大,呈显著正相关量,与气温并不显著。

Based on the monthly measured runoff data and meteorological data of Xiuwen Runoff Station in recent 30 years,we adopted M-K mutation test,wavelet analysis and partial correlation analysis to investigate the characteristics of runoff variation characteristics in karst small watershed.The results showed that from 1985 to 2012,the interannual runoff variation of Xiuwen River Basin showed an insignificant upward trend. The seasonal fluctuation was obvious,and the flow was the largest in summer,followed by that in autumn,in spring and in winter.The monthly average change showed a trend of first rising and then declining,and the overall trend approached to n-type.The interannual variation cycle was roughly three,five and ten years. In the context of global warming,rainfall had the greatest impact on the runoff,showing a significant positive correlation,and the influence of temperature was not significant.