“一带一路”沿线国家投资网络结构演化及其民族特征研究——基于国际资本市场分析

A Study on the Evolution of Investment Network Structure and Its Ethnic Characteristics in Countries along the “Belt and Road”:Based on the Analysis of International Capital Market

基于国际资本市场数据,文章使用社会网络分析方法对“一带一路”沿线国家对外直接投资的空间网络演变与结构特征进行描述分析,通过固定效应模型分析各国资本市场的影响因素,为促进沿线各国资本流动决策提供参考。研究结果表明:投资网络呈明显的“核心—半边缘—边缘”圈层结构,核心区内部紧密相连,边缘同核心互联互通,形成良好的资本流动网络结构;沿线国家具有“小世界”特征,偏好对邻近地区进行投资,集聚形成三大团体组织;随着合作深入,沿线各国资本流动辐射范围扩大,逐步打破地缘束缚和路径依赖,提高了网络密度和资本流动效率;资本保护力度、市场管制力度和融资能力等因素对双边投资偏好的影响显著,而金融服务水平和资本市场存量则影响较小。

Based on the data of the international capital market,this paper uses the social network analysis method to describe and analyze the spatial network evolution and structural characteristics of foreign direct investment in countries along the"Belt and Road".The fixed effect model is used to analyze the factors that influence the capital markets of the countries along the route,and to provide a reference for the decision-making of promoting the capital flow of these countries.The research results illustrate that:(1)the investment network shows an obvious"core-semi-periphery-periphery"circle structure.In this structure,the periphery and the core are interconnected,and the core area is also closely connected,which form a good capital flow framework;(2)countries along the route show the characteristics of"small world".They prefer to invest in neighboring countries,and gather to form three major groups;(3)With the increasing cooperation among the countries along the route,the radiation scope of the capital flow has expanded,which gradually breaks the geographical constraints and path dependence,and improves the network density and capital flow efficiency;(4)Factors such as capital protection,market regulation and financing capacity have a significant impact on bilateral investment while the level of financial services and the stock of capital market have less influence on it.