基于贝叶斯网络的复杂产品研制供应链风险缓解策略优选

Optimization of Supply Chain Risk Mitigation Strategy for Complex Product Development Based on Bayesian

研究复杂产品研制供应链风险缓解策略优选问题。面向复杂产品研制供应链业务流程的风险因素,研究了风险因素、供应链绩效及风险缓解策略之间的相互作用。基于贝叶斯网络模型构建了考虑风险因素内在联动的供应链风险网络,提出了基于前景理论的风险缓解策略前景值测算方法,建立了考虑风险缓解策略前景值最大与预算约束的风险缓解策略选择优化模型。最后,以大型客机起落架研制供应链为例,说明了方法的应用步骤并验证了模型的有效性。

The optimization of supply chain risk mitigation strategies for complex product development is studied.Considering the risk factors in the supply chain business process of complex product development,the interaction among risk factors,supply chain performance and risk mitigation strategies is studied.Based on the Bayesian network model,a supply chain risk network considering internal interrelation of risk factors is constructed.The estimation method for prospect values of risk mitigation strategies based on the prospect theory is proposed.Moreover,the optimization model of strategies selection is established combining the maximum prospect value and budget constraint of risk mitigation strategies.In order to illustrate the application of the method and verify the validity of the model,the supply chain of aircraft undercarriage development is presented as a case study.