道路交通事故反事实仿真测试平台构建技术研究

Study on Construction Technology of Road Traffic Accident Counterfactual Simulation Test Platform

在对事故数据统计分析、事故成因分析、事故严重程度预测等定性和定量分析技术研究的基础上,将道路交通事故反事实仿真技术引入事故调查分析中,研究了反事实仿真测试的基本原理、仿真测试平台构建、真实事故场景重建、事故影响因素分析、基于追尾碰撞的反事实仿真过程及量化评估等问题。将事故再现与仿真技术相结合,通过梳理道路交通事故中涵盖驾驶人、车辆和道路设施的典型事故场景,构建了车辆控制模型、行人行为模型、道路环境模型及车辆、驾驶人、两轮车、行人、交通安全防护设施的有限元模型。搭建了真实事故场景,并通过对真实事故场景中1个或多个关键要素的替换,实现了仿真环境下的行驶方向、行驶速度、运动轨迹等变量的控制,对道路交通事故反事实场景进行仿真。最后对仿真结果进行了评估分析,测试了1个或多个关键要素变化后事故发生概率、事故损伤程度的变化,借此量化事故各关键要素在道路交通事故中的影响权重,达到量化评估道路交通事故的关键影响因素的目的。

On the basis of the research on the qualitative and quantitative analysis technologies such as statistical analysis of accident data,analysis of accident causes,prediction of accident severity,etc,by introducing road traffic accident counterfactual simulation technology into accident investigation and analysis,the basic principle of counterfactual simulation test,construction of simulation test platform,reconstruction of real accident scene,analysis of accident influencing factors,counterfactual simulation process and quantitative evaluation based on rear-end collision are studied.Combining accident reappearance and simulation technology,by sorting out the typical accident scenarios of road traffic accidents that cover drivers,vehicles and road facilities,the vehicle control model,pedestrian behavior model,road environment model,and the finite element models of vehicles,drivers,two-wheelers,pedestrians and traffic safety protection facilities are built.A real accident scene is built,the variables such as driving direction,driving speed,motion track,etc in the simulation environment are controlled through the replacement of one or more key elements in the real accident scene.The road traffic accident counterfactual scene is simulated.Finally,the simulation result is evaluated and analyzed,the changes of accident probability and damage degree after the change of one or more key elements are tested,so as to quantify the influencing weight of each key element of the accident in road traffic accidents,and achieve the purpose of quantifying the key influencing factors of road traffic accidents.