首次全国自然灾害综合风险公路承灾体普查成果应用研究

Study on Application of First National Comprehensive Risk Survey Result of Natural Disasters on Highway Bearing Bodies

为摸清公路沿线自然灾害风险的底数,交通运输部于2020年至2022年期间开展了第1次全国自然灾害综合风险公路承灾体普查。本研究介绍了本次普查所获得的数据成果主要内容和数据调查的主要流程方法,分析了全国干线公路所取得的10万余条崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、沉陷与塌陷、水毁等灾害风险数据。研究了各类灾害风险数据的占比、不同公路类型的风险分布和各省份的风险数量分布。总结了全国公路自然灾害风险分布特征;以典型省份的典型灾害类型为例,针对坡体结构、灾害发生时的危害程度等方面进行了较为深入的风险分布特征分析,总结了本次普查的风险评估、路线区划和区域区划方法和风险评估区划结果,介绍了普查在技术标准和信息化方面取得的成果。在此基础上对公路预警与应急管理开展了应用研究,提出了自然灾害风险识别、灾害风险监测预警、自然灾害防治工程、公路应急管理、路网布局优化等方面的建议。

In order to understand the basic situation of natural disaster risks along the highways,the Ministry of Transport conducted the first national comprehensive survey of natural disaster risks on highway disaster carriers from 2020 to 2022.In this paper,the main content of the data obtained from this census and the main process and method of data investigation are introduced,more than 100000 disaster risk data obtained from national trunk highways,including collapse,landslide,debris flow,subsidence and collapse and water damage are analyzed.The proportion of different types of disaster risk data,the distribution of different highway types of risks and the distribution of risk quantities in each province are studied.The risk distribution characteristics of natural disasters on highways across the country are summarized.Taking typical disaster types in typical provinces for example,the in-depth analysis on the risk distribution characteristics is conducted from the aspects of slope structure and the harm degree during disasters.The risk assessment,route zoning,regional zoning methods used in this census and the obtained risk assessment zoning result are summarized,and the results of the census in terms of technical standard and informatization are introduced.On this basis,the applied research on highway early warning and emergency management is conducted,and the suggestions on natural disaster risk identification,disaster risk monitoring and early warning,natural disaster prevention and control engineering,highway emergency management,road network layout optimization,etc are put forward.