中心城区公交站点停靠时间可靠性影响因素分析

Analysis on Factors Affecting Bus Dwell Time Reliability in Central Urban Area

为了优化公交车辆的调度方案,应用AVL数据构建了公交站点停靠时间的分布模型,剖析了影响公交停靠时间可靠性的相关因素。首先,基于公交停靠时间数据确定了站点停靠时间的分布模型—Burr(4P)分布模型;其次,提出了停靠时间可靠性的概念,并在此基础上构建了公交停靠时间可靠性评价分析框架;最后,分析交通条件、道路条件等与停靠时间可靠性指标的相关关系,确定了影响公交停靠时间可靠性的主要因素有设计因素、时间因素和位置因素。结果表明:有无公交专用车道、泊位数量和与下游交叉口的距离是关键影响因素;而时间因素和与上游交叉口距离是非关键影响因素。此外,所提出的评价指标简单直观,能有效反映公交停靠时间可靠性,进而能够为公交运营管理者提供决策依据与理论支持。

In order to optimize the bus dispatching plan,AVL data is used to construct a distribution model of bus dwell time,and the relevant factors affecting the reliability of bus dwell time are also analyzed.First,based on the bus dwell time data,the distribution model of the dwell time—Burr(4 P)distribution model is determined.Second,the concept of dwell time reliability is put forward,and a framework for evaluating and analysing the bus dwell time reliability is constructed on this basis.Finally,the relationship among traffic conditions,road conditions and dwell time reliability indicator is analyzed.It is determined that the main factors affecting the reliability of bus dwell time are design factor,time factor and location factor.The result shows that whether there are bus lanes,the number of berths and the distance from the downstream intersection are the key factors,while the time factor and the distance from the upstream intersection are the non key factors.In addition,the proposed evaluation indicator is simple and intuitive,and can effectively reflect the reliability of bus dwell time,it can provide a decision-making basis and theoretical support for bus operation managers.