基于前景理论—影响力混合模型的路径决策研究

Research on Path Decision-Making Based on Prospect Theory-Impact Hybrid Model

传统的出行路径决策研究多集中于"事前"研究,即出行者在出行前通过综合考虑道路网络所有的信息,在纯理性的基础上确定出本次出行所选择的最佳出行路径,这与实际出行者出行路径选择有较大的不同。通过引入有限理性和节点作用力的观点,建立了基于交叉口节点决策的前景理论—影响力混合路径决策模型。通过设置仿真实验,验证了本模型相比期望效用理论和单纯的前景理论更加符合实际出行者实际路径决策,弥补了传统路径选择研究的不足。

Traditional travel path decision-making mostly focuses on"beforehand"study,that is,travelers determine the optimal travel path on the basis of pure rationality by considering all the information of the road network before traveling,which is quite different from the actual traveler\s travel path choice.By introducing the viewpoint of bounded rationality and node forces,a hybrid path decisionmaking model based on the prospect theory of node decision-making at intersections is established.By setting up simulation experiments,it is verified that the model is more in line with the actual traveler\s actual path decision-making than the expected utility theory and the pure prospect theory,which remedies the shortcomings of the traditional path selection research.