法国《国家战略评估》评析

Analysis of France’s National Strategic Review

自1958年法兰西第五共和国建立以来,法国政府共发布过7份安全战略性质的官方文件,为不同时期的国防与国家安全政策提供了指南。乌克兰危机爆发后,法国和欧洲的安全环境受到冷战结束以来的最大冲击,马克龙政府遂于2022年11月发布《国家战略评估》,为2024—2030年军事规划法确立基本框架。新版战略将俄罗斯列为长期重大威胁,对“西方模式”前景日益焦虑,在安全上再次向大西洋主义回摆,并做出法国军队转型和国防工业发展等重大调整。综合判断,法国未来一段时间将持续增加军事投入,减少对非洲的直接军事干预,对俄罗斯防范遏制与施压并重,对华政策则更趋复杂矛盾,同时法国仍试图在对美依赖中寻求自主。

Since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958,the French government has issued seven official documents that contain the quality of a security strategy,which have guided France's national defense and security policies in different periods.After the Ukraine crisis erupted,the security environments of France and Europe suffered their greatest shock since the end of the Cold War.In this context,France's President Emmanuel Macron unveiled the new National Strategic Review(NSR)in November 2022,establishing a basic framework for the 2024–2030 Military Program Law.This new NSR sees Russia as a major long-term threat and highlights France's growing anxiety about the future of the Western model.Correspondingly,the country is swinging back to Atlanticism in terms of security and making significant adjustments concerning the transformation of its armed forces and the development of its defense industry.Based on a comprehensive analysis,the author expects France to continue increasing military investments in the foreseeable future,reducing direct military intervention in Africa,and staying on guard against Russia through containment and pressurization.Its China policy will become more complicated and contradictory.Remaining dependent on the United States,France is still trying to seek autonomy.