国家安全风险评估机制与方法的比较研究

A Comparative Study of National Security Risk Assessment Mechanisms and Methodologies

世界百年未有之大变局与世纪疫情双重叠加,国际安全形势严峻复杂,立足中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会开创新局面、开启新征程的历史节点,我国国家安全仍然面临着内部和外部、传统和非传统等各种风险隐患,如何基于底线思维构建我国国家安全风险评估机制并探索科学的方法体系意义深远。本文在考查美英典型国家的国家安全战略报告、国家安全制度等涉及的国家安全风险评估制度、流程与方法基础上,结合我国国家安全风险评估工作的现状,探索我国国家安全风险评估机制建设完善的思路与路径,尝试构建面向总体国家安全和各领域国家安全的“1+N”多位一体的国家安全风险评估体系,并从国家安全风险评估的系统化、标准化、常态化和精准化四个方面提出相应的强化措施。

A combination of the profound changes we face on a scale unseen in a century and the COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to the grave and complex global security environment.At the historic juncture when the 20th National Congress of the CPC,which just closed,opens new ground and the Chinese people embark on a new journey,China is still confronted with various traditional and non-traditional risks concerning national security,both internally and externally.In this regard,it is of far-reaching significance that we be prepared for worst-case scenarios,establish a risk assessment mechanism for preserving China’s national security,and explore a scientific system of relevant methodologies.This paper aims to provide an overview of the national security-related risk assessment systems,procedures,and methodologies commonly applied in countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom,as illustrated by their national security strategy reports and regimes.Furthermore,this paper intends to discuss possible paths,based on the status quo,for perfecting China’s national security risk assessment mechanisms in effiorts to create a“1 plus N”risk assessment system that spans both the overall security of our country and discrete national security issues in diffierent areas.Finally,this paper will propose measures to make national security risk assessment more systematic,standard,regular,and targeted in China.