议程设置中的时间变化:基于社交机器人、媒体和公众时间滞后分析

Time Change in Agenda Setting:Time-Lag Analysis Based on Social Bots,Media and Public

社交媒体是一个复杂的媒介系统,其中社交机器人、媒体、公众等传播主体混合交融形成了最终的社交媒体议程。本研究基于新冠疫情早期Twitter数据,综合运用图形观察、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析等方法探讨了社交机器人、媒体和公众之间的关系和时间滞后。研究发现社交机器人和媒体都对公众议程产生正向影响,且随着时间的推移,媒体对公众议程的贡献度逐渐上升,而社交机器人的贡献度则呈现波动和整体下降趋势。其次,社交机器人引起公众响应的最佳时间滞后为1小时,影响持续时间是9小时;媒体则需要更长的时间来设置公众议程,最佳时间滞后为12小时,影响持续时间也更长,为24小时。最后,针对不同性质次级议题分析发现,社交机器人主要是在“具体的议题”引起其他议程响应,最佳时间滞后和影响持续时间均较短,而媒体主要是在“抽象的议题”产生议程设置,最佳时间滞后和影响持续时间相对较长。

Social media platform is a complex media system in which social bots,media,public and other communication agents mix and mingle to form the social media agenda.This study explores the relationship and time lag between social bots,media,and public based on Twitter data from the early days of the COVID-19 epidemic using a combination of graphical observations,Granger causality tests,and impulse response analysis.The study reveals that both social bots and media positively influence the public agenda,and the contribution of media to the public agenda gradually increases over time,while the contribution of social bots shows more fluctuations and an overall decreasing trend.In addition,the results show that the optimal time lag for social bots to elicit public response is 1 hour,and the positive impact of social bots on public is 9 hours;the media takes longer to set the public agenda,with an optimal time lag of 12 hours and a longer impact duration of 24 hours.Finally,the analysis of sub-issues finds that social bots mainly elicit other agenda responses on concrete issues with shorter optimal time lags and impact durations,while media mainly elicit other agenda responses on abstract issues with longer optimal time lags and impact durations.