关税争端对中美贸易差额、贸易条件与贸易结构的影响

Impact of Sino-US Tariff Dispute on Trade Balance, Terms of Trade and Trade Structure

自2018年以来,中美关税争端涉及超过4607亿美元商品,堪称史上规模最大的关税战。至今,中美仍有过半数的双边贸易额面临平均20%的额外关税影响。加征关税导致中美贸易额在2019年显著下降,中断了2008年全球金融危机以来中美两国双边贸易依存度稳步上升的态势。虽然关税在双边层面上缓解了中美贸易逆差,但却在多边层面上恶化了两国与世界其他国家的贸易失衡。和已有文献结果不同,本文发现,受关税影响中国一半以上行业对美价格贸易条件在2019年出现恶化,中、高技术含量制造业价格贸易条件恶化最为明显,但关税战并未影响中国全球货物贸易稳步发展的态势。关税在短期提升了美国对华价格贸易条件,但却使美国对华出口结构再次背离其显示性比较优势水平。综上,美国的关税大棒除短期缓解了对华贸易失衡外,并未实现对华贸易条件的改善以及对华贸易结构的改善。

Since 2018,the Sino-US trade dispute has involved more than$460.7 billion in goods,makingit the largest tariff war in history.So far,more than half of the bilateral trade volume betweenChina and the United States is still affected by an average 20%additional tariff.The increasein tariffs has led to a significant decline in Sino-US trade in 2019,interrupting the steadyincrease in their bilateral trade dependence since the financial crisis.Although tariffs haveeased the Sino-US trade imbalance,they have worsened the trade imbalance between the twocountries and the rest of the world at the multilateral level.It is found that more than half ofChina’s industries affected by tariffs have deteriorated in terms of trade with the United Statesin 2019,which is different from what the existing literature has shown;the deterioration ofmid-tech and high-tech manufacturing prices has been the most obvious,but the tariff war hasnot affected the trend of China’s steady global trade in goods development.Tariffs in the short-term have increased the US prices and terms of trade with China,but it does again make theUS export structure to China deviate from its level of demonstrated comparative advantage,andit is not conducive to the improvement of its structure of export to China in the long run.Insummary,apart from the short-term easing trade imbalances with China,the US tariffs havefailed to achieve improvement in terms and structure of trade with China.