新发展格局下的国内需求与创新:再论城镇化、市民化的重要性

Domestic Demand and Innovation under the New Development Strategy:the Role of Urbanization and Citizenization

提升国内需求、促进技术创新是双循环新发展格局的战略基点。本文聚焦城镇化和市民化在畅通双循环中的作用,主要结论包括:一是中国较低的资本有机构成和不断走低的利率为增加投资需求提供了空间,而大力推进城镇化和市民化则能为实现投资提供充分必要条件;二是长期以来国内消费一直不振,该现象并没有随着收入不均等和城乡收入差距的下降而发生显著改善,其根本原因在于严重的城乡分割,只能通过加速市民化进程和进一步推进城镇化加以消除;三是技术创新和转化需要研发投入、高技能人才、集聚和市场规模,这些都离不开城镇化和市民化;四是国内消费需求不足是东亚经济体的共有特征,可能与提倡节俭的儒家文化相关,这给双循环带来了严峻挑战;五是学术界对城镇化市民化的速度、规模以及空间分布等方面的研究仍然不足,亟需加强。

Boosting domestic demand and promoting technological innovation represent the basis of the"dual circulation"development strategy.This article focuses on the role of urbanization andcitizenization under the new strategy.Major findings include:(1)China’s low capital/laborratio and falling interest rates imply more space for internal investment,where urbanizationand citizenization form the pre-conditions for investment demand.(2)Domestic consumptionhas been sluggish for a long time,and has not seen recovery with the decline of incomeinequality and urban-rural income gap.The fundamental reason lies in the urban-ruralsegmentation,which can be gradually eliminated by accelerating the citizenization and furtherurbanization.(3)Technological innovations and adoptions require R&D investment,high-skilled labor force,agglomeration and market size,all of which are hindered by insufficienturbanization and citizenization.(4)Low domestic consumption rate is a common feature of EastAsian economies,possibly caused by the Confucian culture of thrift.Thus,implementing the"dual circulation"strategy will be an uphill battle.(5)Academic research on the speed,scaleand spatial distribution of urbanization is still insufficient and needs to be further intensified.