货币政策、消费偏好与双预期管理

Monetary Policy, Consumption Preference and Dual Expectation Management

本文采用双预期DSGE模型,运用多重指标刻画不同情形下货币政策的动态消费效应。结果表明:单预期下,包含预期的货币政策动态消费效应优于其他情形;双预期下,未包含数量型货币政策预期、包含消费偏好预期的货币政策动态消费效应优于其他情形,包含价格型货币政策预期和消费偏好预期的货币政策动态消费效应优于其他情形;多指标评价体系下,数量型货币政策预期和消费偏好预期之间产生抵消效应,价格型货币政策预期和消费偏好预期之间产生叠加效应。管理机构应根据不同规则进行差异化预期管理,避免货币政策与消费偏好之间发生预期错配,强化双预期管理,最大化货币政策的消费效应。

This paper builds up a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which contains monetary policy expectations and consumption preference expectations,describing dynamic consumption effects in different situations based on the multiple indicators.The results show that with single expectation,the consumption effects of monetary policy with monetary policy expectations and consumption preference expectations are more favorable than those under other circumstances.With double expectations,the consumption effects of monetary policy with consumption preference expectations and without quantitative monetary policy expectations are superior to those under other circumstances.The consumption effects of monetary policy with priced monetary policy expectations and consumption preference expectations are better than those under other circumstances.In the multi-indicator evaluation system,double expectations of quantitative monetary policy and consumption produce an offset effect,while an additive effect is shown in double expectations of priced monetary policy consumption.Therefore,policy making authorities should conduct differentiated expectation management according to different rules,avoiding expectation misallocation between monetary policy and consumer preferences,strengthening dual expectation management,and maximizing the consumption effect of monetary policy.The marginal contribution of this paper is reflected as the followed.Firstly,this paper attempts to introduce expectations on monetary policy shocks and consumption preference shocks,and on this basis,focuses on describing additive effect or offset effect between monetary policy expectations and consumption preference expectations.Secondly,this paper attempts to build up a multi-indicator evaluation system including shock extremes,control range,positive response period,short-term effect,stage effect,long-term effect,and measures the dynamic consumption effects of monetary policy in different situations based on multiple indicators.It effectively overcomes the dilemma of quantitative and priced monetary policy by a single indicator,and expands the evaluation indicator system of traditional impulse response analysis.