新一代国际投资规则影响因素及未来路径——基于BITs和TIPs的量化研究

Influencing Factors and Future Paths of the New Generation of International Investment Rules——Quantitative Research Based on BITs and TIPs

新一轮国际投资规则的构建已经开始,规则本身的推陈出新及不同国家间的规则竞争都处于新阶段。本文对影响经济体间投资规则策略选择的因素进行实证检验发现,双边距离较近、经济规模较大、经济相似度较高、前期投资规模大、技术水平差距大的国家倾向于签订数量更多、覆盖范围更广的协定;在新一轮跨国投资规则制定中,国内产权保护制度会增加科技发展水平对跨国投资规则的正向影响;"一带一路"相关国家近十年投资协定增速放缓,严重滞后于实际投资发展状况。无任何投资规则但经济联系紧密的国家间应抓紧开展谈判,已有协定但严重滞后于实际情况的国家应加快完善升级,中国在考虑角色转变带来的对保护性条款需求增加的同时,还应在全球治理中发挥引领者作用。

A new round of restructuring of international investment rules has begun.The rules themselves and the competition among different countries have come to a historical turning point.This paper aims to analyze the current situation and influencing factors of international investment rules in detail,and explore the future development path of IIAs.This paper uses almost all international investment agreements that have been signed in the world and divides the strategic choices of IIAs among countries into ten situations,thus constructing two multi-classification indicators,as well as heterogeneity indicators based on the content of the agreement.According to this,the paper uses the cross-sectional analysis method,adopts ordered-logit model,and estimates the parameters through the maximum likelihood method to empirically test the factors affecting the choice of investment rules strategies.Through the empirical study,it is found that the closer the bilateral distance,the larger the economy,the greater the economic similarity,the larger the previous investment scale,and the larger gap in technology level,the more likely that a country signs agreements with wider coverage.For the new generation of transnational investment and rule making,the gap in domestic property rights protection will exacerbate the positive impact of the gap in technology.The growth of investment agreements in the countries along Belt and Road has slowed in the past decade,with their actual investment conditions and the rules lagging behind those in other regions.For countries with close economic ties but no investment agreement at present,their investors and host countries are exposed to various risks,and the pace of negotiations should be accelerated.For countries that have signed agreements but the content has been seriously lagging behind the world economic development,these agreements should be improved and upgraded to adapt to the adjustment of the current world investment pattern and the changes in the investment roles of countries.While considering the increased demand for protective clauses due to the role change,China should also play a leading role in global governance.