面向碳中和的中国汽车用能趋势演变研究

China’s road transport energy consumption evolution in the context of carbon neutrality

新能源汽车市场占有率和保有规模快速增加,对传统成品油需求和零售终端形成直接冲击,带动整个汽车供能产业链生态变革。基于“车用能源系统分析模型”对中国车用能源体系演变进行模拟的结果显示,中国汽车保有水平2030年将超过4亿辆;2040年新能源汽车保有量占比过半,2050年超过80%;车用汽柴油消费量将于2025年达峰后快速下降,2050年汽车领域用能将转为电能、氢能主导;2050年后多数传统加油站将被新能源汽车供能基础设施替代,至少需建成1.7万座加氢站和12.6万座大功率充电站才能满足加氢和公共充电需求。在碳中和愿景下,加油站将是传统油气供应商加快进军新能源业务的关键依托,充电和加氢已成为国际大石油公司推进传统终端供能业务转型的共同选择,传统油气供应商将围绕交通出行革命性变革加快新能源供能业务的发展。

The rapid increase in the market share and ownership of new energy vehicles will have a direct impact on the demand for traditional refined oil products and retail terminals,leading to ecological changes in the overall vehicles energy supply industry chain.According to the results of the simulation of the evolution of China’s vehicles energy system based on the“Vehicle Energy System Analysis Model”,China’s vehicle ownership will exceed 400 million in 2030,the ownership of new energy vehicles will account for more than half of the total number of vehicles in 2040,and more than 80%in 2050.Vehicle consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel will peak in 2025,and then decline rapidly.By 2050,the vehicle sector will be dominated by electricity and hydrogen,most traditional gas stations will be replaced by new energy vehicle energy supply infrastructure after 2050,and at least 17,000 hydrogen refueling stations and 126,000 high-power charging stations will be needed to meet the demand for hydrogen refueling and public charging.Under the carbon neutrality vision,gas stations will be the key support for traditional oil and gas suppliers to accelerate their entry into new energy businesses,and charging and hydrogen refueling have become the common choice for international oil companies to promote the transformation of traditional terminal energy businesses,and traditional oil and gas suppliers will accelerate the development of new energy businesses around the revolutionary change of transportation.