新能源技术进步不确定性对碳达峰碳中和目标实现路径的影响

Impact of uncertainty in new energy technology advancement on the achievement path of the dual-carbon goals

构建新型能源系统、实现碳达峰碳中和目标依赖于新能源技术的快速发展,以可再生能源为代表的新能源的未来技术发展具有较强的不确定性,技术进步不确定性将在较大程度上影响碳达峰碳中和目标的实现路径。针对风电、光伏发电以及碳捕集与封存等低碳能源的技术发展趋势,设计包含技术不确定性的基准情景和“双碳”目标情景,对技术进步不确定性进行模拟,利用MESSAGEix-China-RUC模型开展情景计算与分析。新能源技术发展要在进入2030—2045年关键期前提速,进一步降低新能源技术的系统成本;煤炭等化石能源的压舱石作用有助于能源安全,发展碳捕集与封存技术对“双碳”目标的实现有重要意义;大力推动新能源技术快速高质量发展有助于实现低成本的“双碳”能源转型。

Constructing a new energy system and achieving the dual-carbon goals depend on the rapid development of new energy technologies,the future technological development of new energy sources represented by renewable energy sources is highly uncertain,and the uncertainty of technological progress will greatly affect the path to achieve the dual-carbon goals.To address the technological development trend of low-carbon energy sources such as wind power,photovoltaic power generation,and carbon capture and storage,the paper designs a baseline scenario and a the dual-carbon goals scenario that includes technological uncertainty,simulates the uncertainty of technological progress,and uses the MESSAGEix-China-RUC model to carry out scenario calculation and analysis.The development of new energy technologies should be accelerated before entering the critical period of 2030-2045,and the system cost of new energy technologies should be further reduced.The ballast role of coal and other fossil energy sources contributes to energy security,and the development of carbon capture and storage technologies is important to achieve the dual-carbon goals.Vigorously promoting the rapid and high-quality development of new energy technologies can help achieve“dual-carbon”energy transformation with the low cost.