国际石油公司上游勘探业务发展策略与思考

Development strategies and thoughts on the upstream exploration business of international oil companies

2018—2022年,bp、雪佛龙、埃尼、艾奎诺、埃克森美孚、壳牌和道达尔能源公司勘探新项目数量整体下降,个别公司呈现恢复性增长的趋势,勘探成效、风险偏好以及低碳转型是影响勘探业务的主要因素。国际石油公司的勘探业务可以分为3类发展模式:一是以bp、雪佛龙、艾奎诺为代表的审慎投资型,相对较低的项目数量和作业者占比,获取途径和盆地类型多样,项目风险承受度中-低,勘探投资为低-中等;二是以埃克森美孚和壳牌为代表的积极投入型,较高-高的项目数量,作业者和深水盆地占比较高,招标和直接谈判为主要获取途径,项目风险承受度中等,勘探投资为中-高;三是以埃尼、道达尔能源为代表的激进主动型,较高-高的项目数量,作业者和深水盆地占比较低,成熟盆地占比较高,获取途径埃尼以招标为主,道达尔能源以权益转让居多,项目风险承受度较高,勘探投资为较低-中等。

The number of new exploration projects by bp,Chevron,Eni,Aquino,ExxonMobil,Shell,and TotalEnergies declined overall in 2018-2022,some companies showed a trend of recovery growth,and exploration effectiveness,risk bias,and low-carbon transition are the main factors affecting the exploration business.The exploration business of international oil companies can be divided into such three types of development models as the prudent investment type represented by bp,Chevron and Aquino with relatively low number of projects and operator shares,diverse access and basin types,medium-low project risk tolerance,and low-moderate exploration investment,the active investment type represented by ExxonMobil and Shell with relatively high number of quite high-high number of projects,operator and deepwater basin shares as well as main acquirement approaches by bidding and direct negotiation plus medium project risk tolerance,and the aggressive and proactive type represented by Eni and TotalEnergies with high to high project numbers,low operator and deepwater basin and high mature basin shares,Eni’s main acquirement approach is by bidding,while TotalEnergies transfers assets with more equity and its project risk tolerance is quite high as well as exploration investment is low-moderate.