从“2023年剑桥能源周”看未来全球能源行业发展趋势

The future of the global energy industry from CERAWeek 2023

2023年第41届剑桥能源周以“把控动荡的世界:能源、气候和安全”为主题,聚焦“能源不可能三角”等重大议题,深入探讨了应对动荡世界的能源策略。会议凝聚了多项共识,包括清洁低碳是必由之路,但油气兜底作用不容忽视;能源安全问题凸显,未来两年欧洲天然气供应仍面临压力;油气市场发生深刻变化,政府干预明显加强;地缘政治冲突下的发展已成为新常态,动荡局势更需保持勇气与合作等。展现了各国低碳与新能源政策的差异,以及石油公司在应对“能源不可能三角”及低碳转型、技术创新等问题时战略思维和实施路径的差异。建议中国能源企业:一是在中美博弈加剧背景下加大在国际能源大会上的参与度,推动能源务实合作,提升中国能源企业形象和影响力;二是超前布局研发关键矿产回收和再利用技术,拓展关键矿产来源;三是坚定不移落实创新战略,推动能源企业可持续发展;四是强化地缘政治局势分析,统筹组织开展对重大风险的预判及应对措施研究。

The 41^(st) Cambridge Energy Week 2023,with the theme“Navigating a Turbulent World:Energy,Climate,and Security”,focused on major issues including the Energy Trilemma,provided insight into energy strategies for a volatile world.The conference brought together a multi-point consensus that clean and low-carbon energy is the only way forward but the role of oil and gas cannot be ignored.The issue of energy security is prominent and Europe’s natural gas supply will still face pressure in the next two years.The oil and gas market has undergone profound changes and government intervention has significantly strengthened.To achieve developments under geopolitical conflicts becomes the new normal and under the turbulent situation it is more needed to maintain courage and cooperation.It also showed the differences in low-carbon and new energy policies of different countries as well as the differences in strategic thinking and implementation paths of oil companies in dealing with the Energy Trilemma and low-carbon transition and technological innovation.Such four main suggestions for Chinese energy enterprises by attending the meeting as strengthening participation of the international energy conference,promoting practical energy cooperation,and enhancing the image and influence of China’s energy enterprises are necessary in the context of intensifying Sino-US strategic competition,advancing the research and development of key mineral recovery and reuse technologies to expand the sources of key minerals,firmly implementing the innovation strategy to promote the sustainable development of energy companies,and strengthening the analysis of the geopolitical situation and coordinating&carrying out research on major risk prediction and response measures.