面向碳达峰碳中和目标的中国油气发展战略思考

Study on China’s development strategy for oil & gas industry toward the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality

“十三五”以来,中国加快推进能源安全新战略和碳达峰、碳中和目标工作,通过深化油气体制改革,加大勘探开发力度,实现了探明储量高位增长,石油连续3年增产,天然气快速上产,油气基础设施基本实现互联互通,LNG接收能力和储气能力明显提升。面对日益严峻的国际新环境,在保障能源安全和实现“双碳”的双重目标下,中国油气行业高质量可持续发展面临资源劣质化、技术瓶颈、体制机制、资源政策、减排降碳、绿色转型等新挑战,但基于资源基础和市场条件,未来油气行业发展前景良好。“十四五”及中长期,中国油气储量将持续高位增长,生产供应能力不断提升,原油产量攀升至2.0亿吨以上并较长时间保持,天然气峰值产量有望达到3500亿立方米以上;油气基础设施较快发展,建成安全高效的全国“一张网”,运输和储备能力大幅提升。围绕保障国家能源安全和实现“双碳”目标,油气行业需采取6大战略举措:强化油气勘探开发,坚定不移推进增储上产;强化油气储备能力建设,增强国内油气供应弹性;全面实施油气全产业链绿色生产运营行动;大力推进油气行业与新能源融合协同发展;强化油气行业关键技术装备攻关;加强油气国际合作。为此,建议加快修订完善有关法律法规;制订完善有关标准规范;做好长远发展顶层设计;加快构建油气增储上产新体制新机制,完善管网建设运营机制;加大有关政策支持力度;构建新型科技创新体制机制。

Since the 13th Five-Year Plan,China has accelerated its new energy security strategy and its efforts to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Through deepening the reform of the oil and gas system and intensifying oil&gas exploration and development,proved reserves have achieved high growth based on the high level,oil production has increased for three consecutive years,natural gas production has achieved a rapid growth,oil and gas infrastructure has been basically interconnected,and LNG receiving capacity and gas storage capacity have been significantly improved.Facing increasingly severe new international environment,the high-quality and sustainable development of China’s oil and gas industry meet such new challenges as low resource quality,technological bottlenecks,system and mechanisms,resource policies,emission reduction and carbon reduction,and green transformation under the goals of ensuring energy security and achieving“dual carbon”.Based on the resource basis and market conditions,the future development of the oil and gas industry is promising.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period and the medium to long term,China’s oil and gas reserves will continue to grow at a high level,and its production and supply capacity will continue to improve.The crude oil output will remain around 200 million tons for a long time and the peak natural gas output is expected to reach over 350 billion cubic meters.Oil and gas infrastructure will develop rapidly,a safe and efficient national“one network”will be built,and the transportation and storage capacity will be increased significantly.China’s oil and gas industry needs to takes such six strategic steps to ensure national energy security and achieve the“dual carbon”goal as strengthening oil and gas exploration and development,promoting the increase of storage and production;facilitating the construction of oil and gas reserve capacity,enhancing the elasticity of domestic oil and gas supply;fully implementing green production and operation for the whole oil and gas industry chain;promoting the oil and gas industry and new energy integration and coordinated development;improving the development of key technologies and equipment in the oil and gas industry;and strengthening international cooperation in oil and gas.Therefore,it is suggested to speed up the revision and improvement of relevant laws and regulations,formulate and perfect relevant standards and norms,do a good job in the top-level design of long-term development,accelerate the establishment of new systems and mechanisms for oil and gas storage and production,improve the construction and operation mechanism of pipeline networks,increase policy support,and build new systems and mechanisms for scientific and technological innovation.