国际长贸LNG采购价格研究

Research on procurement price of international LNG long-term trade

近年来,国际市场长贸LNG采购价格呈现逐年降低的趋势,一批LNG项目受此影响推进放缓。长贸LNG价格在资源端受项目开发运营成本、投资者预期收益、资源国法律政策的影响,在市场端受消费者价格承受能力及可替代能源价格水平的影响,最终价格水平取决于供需双方利益的平衡点。因此,天然气进口企业在国际市场开展长贸LNG价格谈判时,应从资源端和市场端两个角度,结合成本加成、边际价值、替代能源价格、市场净回值等定价理论进行判断。

In recent years,the LNG long-term procurement price in international market has showed a downward trend year by year,which caused a number of LNG liquefaction projects slowdown.On the LNG resource side,the long-term trade price is affected by CAPEX and OPEX of projects,investors’return expectation,and resource countries’law and regulations.On the market side,it is affected by the price affordability of consumers and the price level of alternative energy.The final price level depends on the balance of the interests of both supply and demand.Therefore,the natural gas importing enterprise should make judgment with pricing theory of cost plus,marginal value,alternative energy price,and net market return from such two aspects as the resource side and the market end.