供需再平衡下的全球LNG贸易回顾及展望

Global LNG trade review and outlook amid supply and demand rebalance

2020年,低气价导致全球LNG供应增长大幅放缓,第一批美国LNG出口项目投产完毕;中印需求驱动2020年全球LNG进口量增至3.625亿吨,同比增长1.6%;全球LNG价格创历史新低后大幅攀升。2020年,在供需失衡的极端市场情况下,价格信号激励生产商减少供应,全球LNG市场供应灵活性和需求弹性增加,促进市场再平衡;随着美国LNG产能的提高,欧洲、北美和亚洲三大市场价格联动性不断增强,但仍受物流设施制约;LNG与管道气的竞争进一步加强;低碳化转型促进"碳中和LNG"商务模式发展。预计未来5年,全球新增LNG供应减少,市场平衡有望加速;亚洲地区依然缺乏有影响力的天然气基准价格,LNG贸易价格机制有待进一步完善;在可再生能源快速发展背景下,需探索推进LNG贸易低碳转型的路径。

In 2020,low gas prices have led to a sharp slowdown in global LNG supply growth,and the first wave of the US LNG export projects have started operation.Driven primarily by the demand from China and India,global LNG imports increased to 362.5 million tons in 2020,up 1.6%year on year and global LNG price spiked dramatically after hitting a record low.Amid extreme oversupply situation in 2020,low gas prices encouraged producers to cut LNG production,and increased supply flexibility as well as demand elasticity supported global LNG market rebalancing.With the expanding of LNG export capacity from the US,the price correlation among European,North American and Asian gas markets has strengthened but still constrained by global LNG trade logistic capacity.The competition between LNG and pipeline gas is growingly intense in regional markets and the low-carbon transformation of the global energy structure has promoted emergence of"carbon neutral LNG"business model.It is expected that global LNG supply growth will slow down during the next 5 years,which may accelerate market rebalance.It remains that the Asian LNG and gas market is in the absence of an influential benchmark price,and the current LNG trade pricing mechanism needs to be further improved.In the longer term,it is essential to explore the low-carbon transition pathway in LNG trade with the rapid development of renewable energy.