2020年国际天然气市场分析及后市展望

Analysis on international natural gas market in 2020 and its prospect

受新冠肺炎疫情和国际油价暴跌双重影响,2020年全球天然气供需两侧均呈下滑走势。其中,消费量约为3.81万亿立方米,较上年下降3%;产量约为4.04万亿立方米,较上年下降1.3%。LNG项目投资和投产均受阻,价格创历史新低。全球LNG贸易量同比增长2%,至3.7亿吨,增速显著下滑。随着疫情缓解和国际油价复苏,预计2021年全球天然气供需有望恢复至2019年的水平,价格触底回升;未来5年,全球天然气市场需求将逐步复苏,但增速放缓,全球天然气市场将经历供应过剩到收紧的过程。

Affected by the dual impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge of international oil prices,both global natural gas supply and demand declined in 2020 with the consumption of about 3.81 trillion cubic meters,down 3%from the previous year and the production of about 4.04 trillion cubic meters,down 1.3%from the previous year.LNG projects investment and operation were blocked and its price got the new low.The global LNG trade volume was 370 million tons with an increase by 2%year-on-year and a significant slowdown in growth.As the pandemic eases and international oil prices recover,global natural gas supply and demand are expected to return to the level of 2019 in 2021,with prices bottoming out and rising again.In the next five years,global natural gas market demand will gradually recover at a slower rate,and experience the process from oversupply to the tightening.