中国出口规模的周期更迭及趋势分析——基于重大事件的视角

An Analysis of the Cycle and Trend of China’s Export——Based on A View of Crucial Events

近20多年以来,我国的出口运行呈现出波动式的上升特征,新冠疫情的暴发进一步加剧了波动程度。看似复杂的波动性背后是否隐藏着内在的规律性特征?本文根据1997年至2021年间的月度出口数据,基于重大事件和国内宏观经济转型的维度,发现我国出口经历了三个非对称的周期过程,目前正进入第四个阶段。研究显示,过去的三个周期顺次表现出周期变短、增速放缓、波动加大的趋势。文章进一步对已经开启的第四个周期的运行特点作了预测。文章的政策含义是,新一轮周期开启之后,市场化改革应加速向纵深推进,并将出口导向全方位从规模扩张和增速提升转向改善出口结构和平稳运行方面,为此需排除阻碍创新的制度性障碍,并完善与相关国家的沟通机制。

China’s export has experienced an upward fluctuation process during the past two decades,which has been inflated due to the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.Have some internal regular factors been hidden behind the seemly complicated fluctuation?This paper,from perspectives of crucial events as well as domestic macro-economic transition,and based on the monthly export data between 1997 and 2021,finds that China’s export has experienced three asymmetric periodic processes and has just entered in the fourth cycle.The results reveal that the past three cycles successively show a trend with length shorter,growth rate slower,fluctuation range wider,furthermore,it also predicts relevant figures and features of the ongoing fourth cycle.The policy meaning of this article is that the market-oriented reform in China should be pushed forward faster and more deeply,and the export goal of the scale-aimed and speed-aimed should be turned to the improvement of export’s structure and stable growth rate since the beginning of the new export cycle.For that,the institutional obstacles which have blocked the innovation process should be removed,and the communication mechanism with related nations should be perfected.