全球价值链嵌入、贸易壁垒与外需隐含就业——基于跨国跨行业面板数据的经验研究

Global Value Chain Embeddedness,Trade Barriers and Domestic Employment Embodied in Foreign Final Demand——An Empirical Research Based on Panel Data Across Countries and Industries

加入WTO以来,中国出口激增带来的隐含就业转移成为各国关注的焦点,并沦为欧美发达国家向中国发起贸易争端的重要依据。但2009年以来中国出口持续增长的同时,却出现了外需隐含就业的不断下降,形成消失之谜。为了解答这一谜团,本文从全球价值链的视角切入,实证检验双边价值链嵌入对中国制造业外需隐含就业的影响。研究发现:中国制造业外需隐含就业人数的"消失"是双边价值链嵌入程度减弱和反倾销贸易壁垒的共同作用结果,并以全球价值链嵌入的影响为主;单纯从出口看贸易形成的外需隐含就业创造效应,其值会被高估,也就是说,当中国嵌入双边价值链进程受阻,即使有很高的贸易流量也无法达成良好的就业创造;从影响程度和行业差异来说,双边价值链嵌入的影响在不同行业都起主导作用,贸易壁垒的影响在高技术行业比较突出,但整体来看无法对中国外需隐含就业水平形成大面积的遏制;相比高收入和低收入国家或地区,中等收入国家或地区的双边价值链嵌入和贸易壁垒对中国制造业外需隐含就业的边际影响更高。

From the perspective of global value chain,this paper used WWZ inputoutput method and the latest OECD ICIOT data to calculate global value chain embeddedness degree of China’s manufacturing industries,and empirically studied the impact of bilateral value chain embeddedness on China’s domestic employment embodied in foreign final demand.The findings are:(1)The disappearance of domestic employment embodied in foreign final demand in China’s manufacturing industry is caused by both decrease of bilateral value chain embeddedness degree and increase of foreign anti-dumping investigation on China.The former factor plays a bigger part.(2)The effect of trade-induced embodied employment by export can easily be over-estimated.As China meets obstruction in the process of embedding in global value chain,even a high volume of export won’t create much domestic employment embodied in foreign final demand.(3)The impact of bilateral value chain embeddedness plays a major role across industries.The impact of anti-dumping trade barrier stays a more significant value in high-tech industries.Even so,such impact doesn’t inhibit in large scale China’s employment embodied in foreign final demand.(4)Compared with high-income countries and low-income countries,medium-income countries tend to attract more significant marginal impact from bilateral value chain embeddedness and anti-dumping trade barrier.